This article originally appeared on Case The Race on July 10, 2009.
7/10/09
People on both coasts are ohhing and ahhing over the amazing filly that is dominating the race track. Which filly are they praising? That often depends on where they live -- East Coast or West Coast. While Preakness winner, Rachel Alexandra, has been overpowering the East Coast tracks, undefeated champion, Zenyatta, reigns supreme over the California tracks.
Accolades on both coasts
“Maybe it’s wrong for me to be so in love with a horse… but I admit that I think Rachel Alexandra might be the finest animal I have ever seen.” Lawson Lambert gushed in his blog on the WSNT.net of Baltimore.
In California, blogger Mary Forney is equally impressed with Zenyatta. “I have never seen Rachel Alexandra in person, but I have been just awestruck by the sight of Zenyatta. I've never seen a filly -- or any horse for that matter -- that has left me so speechless! That said, it is difficult for me to believe that anyone could beat Zenyatta… She’s the Queen!”
Public wants a match race
With the fervor that the two horses have generated, conventional wisdom says that the public wants a match race and that the sport needs a match race. “It’s the only race the fans really want to see. If it doesn’t happen, what remains of racing’s image as a sport in this era would take a hit from which it might never recover.” John Pricci asserted in a recent article. Ray Paulick, author of the Paulick Report shared a similar view of the importance of a match between the two champions. “But the most significant loss will be what this sport misses out on if Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta do not meet later this year. Some way, somehow, somewhere, it must happen.”
What are prospects of the two racing each other?
Unfortunately, a matchup does not seem likely in the near future. Owners on each side have ruled out almost every near-term scenario. “I doubt if they race against each other because one would have to lose. Besides the purse money, each filly is in their own class, both being superior. It’ll be hard to compare two all-stars at the top of their game.” Vince Conti, the author of Thoroughbred Horse Racing Systems and Methodologies reasoned. Indeed, comments from the owners of both horses suggest that if they are to meet, it will not be until after the Breeders’ Cup in November.
Zenyatta won’t go to Saratoga
Jerry Moss, co-owner of Zenyatta, has rejected the idea of taking Zenyatta East to Saratoga. According to an article in the Daily Racing Form, Moss has said, “We had a very bad experience with Giacomo going to the detention barn at Belmont, which threw him out of his game for the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He went nuts (finishing seventh, beaten nearly 18 lengths). At Saratoga, you have the detention barn, plus tight turns that would compromise Zenyatta given her running style of coming wide from behind.”
The author of the blog, Handride, put it in plainer terms on May 27, 2009, even before her most recent win. “When you're sitting on a 10 race win streak you don't fix what ain't broke.”
No “plastics” for Rachel
If Zenyatta will not go East to Rachel Alexandra, what are the chances of Rachel Alexandra shipping West to race Zenyatta at the Breeders’Cup? Not likely. According to a Bloodhorse article, Jess Jackson, Rachel Alexandra’s co-owner, has said that he didn’t want to run her over “plastic” (synthetic) surfaces. In that case, the Breeders’ Cup in Santa Anita with its Pro-Ride surface, would not be an option.
Hungry to see the two fillies compete, critics have complained about Jackson’s rationale, arguing that Rachel Alexandra has already run on and won on synthetic surfaces before and should therefore be fine on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. Bruno Di Julio, who is both a handicapper and horse owner, provides some perspective. On his blog, he has written, “Since when does Keeneland or any synthetic surface resemble one another?” After giving examples of various synthetic surfaces that are each significantly different from the Pro- Ride surface, he added, “The Pro-Ride is actually two or three different tracks at different temperatures. So, no, Rachel Alexandra is not tested or proven on all synthetics. She won a race on one type of 'plastic', or on Keeneland's mixture of carpet fibers, jelly cables and wax. Last I looked, the Pro-Ride was oil-based with rubber to be exact. I didn't see any part of her breeding partial to oil polymers.....… the Pro-Ride is not a level playing field.” DiJulio continued by making the analogy, “ It would be like playing the entire NFL season on grass and then turning around and playing the Super Bowl on a sandy beach.”
Not everyone keen on a matchup
Despite the potential excitement of a race between the two horses, some horseplayers are siding with the horses’ connections. Kevin Stafford, author of the Aspiring Horseplayer blog, agrees with the connections, “…while the world would definitely like to see the showdown, I don't necessarily have a problem with that if it does not happen. Shocking, and somewhat contradictory from a traditional ‘fan’ perspective, but my focus is on ‘doing whatever is in the best interest of the horse’ rather than what the public demands.” Stafford adds, “It might be an intriguing prospect, and it might be something we as fans want to see quite badly, but it's hard to suggest that is what is best for these two. Especially since one of them would have to take a step backwards in defeat.”
Again providing perspective, DiJulio illustrated the difference between the roles of horseplayers and owners, “Handicappers have little to do with a horse itself; they handicap, run to the window, and after the race they have no more responsibilities. They won or they lost. That's the extent of the liability. For an owner, you live with the horse --before, during and after.”
Strategies for each
With each horse potentially vying for the title of Horse of the Year, the absence of a matchup on the track does not eliminate the competition between the two. With a matchup race off the table -- at least until after the Breeders’ Cup -- horseplayers and fans are left to speculate about the path forward for the each horse.
Stafford suggests a possible strategy for Zenyatta. “Zenyatta's course should be the Breeders' Cup Classic and a victory over older males. Considering the race is in her backyard, it wouldn't make sense to ship her east to face Rachel. I know she's won on dirt, and it's a bit silly that she may be able to literally run away with Horse of the Year while never leaving California (while a horse like Curlin had to travel all over the globe last year), but that's just the way the ball bounces. She loves the Pro-Ride, and as the Moss family has said, ‘she loves to come off-the-pace on wide, sweeping moves around the turn - something she might have difficulty doing on the tighter ringed dirt tracks back east.’”
For Rachel Alexandra, Stafford suggests that, “Rachel needs to focus on beating older fillies and mares (which would include Zenyatta, in theory) before taking on older males...“[Rachel Alexandra’s] path will likely be the Haskell, Travers, or Alabama first, then perhaps a victory in the Clark. With wins over older horses at multiple tracks, she'll be quite a force for Horse of the Year voters.”
DiJulio expects that the current strategy for Rachel Alexandra is part of a long range plan that could include the Dubai World Cup. “Jackson's plan is clear to me. I am confident he is looking at a long 2010 schedule for Rachel Alexandra, which no doubt includes the Dubai World Cup [that's 6 million folks compared to the 3 million in the Breeders Cup Classic, or half of that in the Ladies Classic], and a 2010 Breeders Cup on her home dirt at Churchill Downs.” DiJulio adds, “She could conceivably become the biggest money earner of all time, if she could win both.”
How a future match might work
Neither of the horses’ owners has opposed the prospect of the horses racing each other sometime in the future. In a Daily Racing Form article, Moss , Zenyatta’s owner, was quoted as saying, “We hope both horses do well throughout the year and that they can meet somewhere.” The question then becomes, when, and under what circumstances the two would meet.
Obviously, the two horses would need to meet somewhere where they each have an equal advantage. “Yes, the match between the two amazon females, and arguably best horses in training, would be monumental and great for the sport, but it has to be, over a level playing surface, a fair surface to both.” DiJulio asserts.
An entry in the Handride blog proposed an interesting solution, “Why not sign up for a 2 race deal? Mr. Jackson will commit to running Rachel in the [Breeders’ Cup] if [Jerry and Ann Moss would] commit to running Zenyatta on a dirt track sometime before then. Now if they split it, I think you just call it a tie and say that each excels on their surface, and appreciate their greatness on each.”
In the meantime, while a matchup remains on hold indefinitely, Stafford points out that there are benefits to the status quo. “I get that we need the "thrilla in Manilla" style matchup to help hype the sport to new levels, but I'm not willing to do so at the potential expense of these two runners. We've essentially had no stars since Curlin retired. Now we've got 2. Why the rush to dwindle that down to 1? Let's just enjoy what we've been blessed with while we can. The minute they face one another, one of them has to lose. I'm just not interested in seeing either of these gals lose. Of course, I could always pull for a dead heat, which would be the only outcome I'd be interested in seeing. What an amazing story that would be!”
