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20 Handicappers' Picks for the Kentucky Derby 2009
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Updated: May-01-2009
Created: May-01-2009
With the deadline fast approaching, a group of 20 handicappers analyzed the field, finalizing their selections for the moment of truth. The task was to deliver 2009 Kentucky Derby picks to us by 5:00 PM, April 30th. The first two selections we received put Musket Man in the lead. Then two for I Want Revenge tied the count. But as the day continued, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire pulled ahead as each selection for Dunkirk seemed to be matched by response favoring Friesan Fire. A late Dunkirk pick restored the tie. In the end, the final tie-breaking pick by Paul Lambrakis brought the count to 20 and gave Friesan Fire the win.
From a field of 20 handicappers, these were the totals:
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Friesan Fire
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5
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Dunkirk
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4
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I Want Revenge
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3
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Musket Man
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3
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Pioneerof the Nile
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2
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Advice
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1
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Desert Party
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1
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Papa Clem
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1
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Here are the handicappers’ individual selections to win and their best bet selections for the Kentucky Derby.
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Win
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Best Bet
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Handicapper
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Site
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Comment
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Friesan Fire
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Terry Sarnoskie
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Friesan Fire to win the Derby with I Want Revenge 2nd or to win if Friesan Fire is scratched.
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Friesan Fire
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Andy Schnell
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Bred to run all day. Same trainer as ill-fated Eight Belles in last year's Derby who plans to retire from training at year's end.
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Friesan Fire
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Key the 6 horse 1st, 2nd and 3rd with the 11, 13, 16 and 19 in trifecta part wheels.
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Rich Santucci
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Friesan Fire has a tightly spaced, impessively strong series of breezing works since crushing horses with a chilly ride in the sloppy LA-derby.
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Friesan Fire
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Friesan Fire over Chocolate Candy and Desert Party in the exacta.
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Paul Lambrakis
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Friesan Fire has been dominant since adding blinkers. All his races have been on dirt with a bullet drill over Curchill Downs surface on Monday.
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Friesan Fire
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Exacta: 5,6 with 5,6,10,16
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Carl Mauricio
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Friesan Fire will be our Big Play for the Kentucky Derby. He was an impressive winner in his last and will move forward as this colt can really run. Lots of class here and he will be tough to beat.
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Dunkirk
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Exacta part wheel: Dunkirk and I Want Revenge over Pioneer of The Nile and Desert Party. #13 and 15 over #13,15,16 and 19.
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Ray Fox
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Huge stretch runner. Was compromised in the Florida Derby by a track so fast that 3 track records were set that day. Should be unbeaten.
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Dunkirk
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Exacta: 6-15/1-6-15-19.
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John Lindley
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Dunkirk appears the most talented to me of this field.
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Dunkirk
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Musket Man
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Cwayne
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Musket Man (20-1) has won 5 of 6 starts on 4 different tracks. With probable off-track conditions and a 20 horse field, good value wager.
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Dunkirk
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Dunkirk
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Man In White
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Dynamite this year running huge figures. Pletcher is fortunate to get Prado who won with him as a firstee.
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I Want Revenge
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West Side Bernie
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Gord Elder
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I Want Revenge
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Churchill Downs offers a 50 Cent Trifecta and a 10 cent Superfecta wager allowing for multiple combinations for either bet without making a big investment.
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Frank DiTodno, author "One Minute Handicapper"
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Sensational since switch to Joe Talamo and synthetic to dirt. He has outstanding in G3 Gotham win and phenomenal G1 Wood. Gliding in brilliant Churchill workouts.
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I Want Revenge
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Friesan Fire
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Matt Matuska
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I Want Revenge and Friesan Fire should both get ideal trips against an average Derby pace scenario and will form major share of our exacta plays with DUNKIRK rounding out our top 3.
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Musket Man
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Musket Man
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Johnny Jupitur
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Musket Man is 5 for 6 lifetime. Will win it closing at the wire.
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Musket Man
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I Want Revenge
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Michael A. Gooley
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Super Value Win Bet Musket Man won the G2 Illinois Derby by 2 lengths in a classic powerful big win style. Worked bullet 6F - 4/18.
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Musket Man
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Mike DeAngelo
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The Derby is about value. In a 20 horse field, longshots and small wagers are the way to go. We're calling this a three horse race between MUSKET MAN (20/1), PAPA CLEM (20/1) and I WANT REVENGE (3/1).
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Pioneerof The Nile
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Pioneerof The Nile
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Wiligee
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Three time derby winner Bob Baffert trains Pioneerof The Nile, who has already beaten 4 of these, including the favorite. Don`t overlook SA Derby winner.
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Pioneerof the Nile
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Papa Clem
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Tim Maas
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Advice
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Show bet on Dunkirk
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George Kaywood
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Advice = Best of the many closers, probable odds dictate the choice 3 days out (I usually pick the night before). Very tough race this year.
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Desert Party
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Desert Party
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Nico Kunaleah
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Godolphin Stable may finally have it's Derby winner. Trainer Saed Bin Suroor has this horse ready for the 1 and 1/4 mile test. At 20 to 1 this is the best bet.
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Papa Clem
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Exacta key box Papa Clem w/ Dunkirk, I Want Revenge, and Pioneer of the Nile.
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Duwayne Fendrick
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Papa Clem will be coming out of the clouds in the end and I love R. Bejarano in the irons.
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For additional selections, we encourage you to visit the sites from the handicappers in our directory.
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Comments
May 04, 2009
10:02 AM |
Wow, what a story. Sunland Park. Last place in BC Juvenile last year with Mandella. And he won for fun. What happened to Friesan Fire? 7 weeks his downfall? |
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May 03, 2009
6:59 AM |
MUSKET MAN was a Super Value Win bet at Trackpro.com and paid $12.00 to show. When I look back at the race MINE THAT BIRD had an excellent dosage index over 5.0 and I think everyone forgot about the importance of dosage in the Kentucky Derby. All the best to Case The Race!! - Michael A. Gooley - Trackpro.com |
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May 02, 2009
6:31 PM |
Well, I had 3 out of 4 in that 1/2 mill superfecta. Unfortunately, I had Mine That Bird dead last. Life goes on, turn the page. We had fun drinking bourbon at least.
Mike at www.aplusthorobred.com
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May 02, 2009
9:00 AM |
I would like to see General Quaters win the Kentucky Derby .I saw the story of the owner and
trainer on Abc Tv with Charles Gibson he purchased
the horse for20,000 dollars and has been at
Church Hill Downs for years as a fan,it would be
great if he won. |
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May 02, 2009
7:08 AM |
worse day to make a wager all year long |
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May 02, 2009
3:30 AM |
Handicapping is fun especially the Kentucky Derby.
It is difficult since 20 horses all want to win!
But a $1.00 tri Box with four horses should do the trick! Freisan Fire, I want Revenge, Pioneer Of the Nile, Papa Clem!! should do the trick!
Good Luck to all! |
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May 01, 2009
11:16 PM |
A longshot will win the derby. Either Summerbird or Atomic Rain. 1:37 below for 1 mile, 3rd or 5th
from the front runner will win half length |
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May 01, 2009
11:15 PM |
A longshot will win the derby. Either Summerbird or Atomic Rain. 1:37 below for 1 mile, 3rd or 5th
from the front runner will win half length |
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May 01, 2009
10:37 PM |
The whole bunch has forgotten about Chocolate Candy. lol |
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May 01, 2009
10:13 PM |
i think general quarters will run a great race, along with chocolate candy, fresian fire, pioneer of the nile, and i want revenge |
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May 01, 2009
5:52 PM |
Big pace advantage for FF. Cuts the corner with the lead and then digs down deep to hold off IWR late. If FF doesn't trip out well, IWR will crush these. Don't make it harder than it has to be boys and girls. Good Luck, and beware Mr. Hot Stuff, coming into a peak race. |
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May 01, 2009
4:40 PM |
Thank you for all the hard work that you did for us (members) and good luck to the players
Carlo vinniro |
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May 01, 2009
3:47 PM |
Look at the Beyers on I Want Revenge, then look at the speed rating and track variant he ran at the Wood. Monstrous. He should be the first across the line. Key him with Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, Papa Clem and Hold Me Back in exactas and trifectas. |
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