One major trend right now is a decrease in the number of Derby preps desired by trainers. Back in the “old days,” horses ran more often. The belief was that horses had to be battle-tested multiple times before attempting the Triple Crown. These days, it is becoming more common to enter a horse in the race after only two prep races. Last year, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby after two prep races and only three lifetime starts. The year before that, Street Sense also won after completing only two prep races. Big Brown went on to win the Preakness impressively and Street Sense missed by a nose.

 

Before those two came along, it had been over twenty years since a horse won the Derby with two preps. In the last decade alone, Derby winners Barbaro, Giacomo, Funny Cide, and Fusaichi Pegasus each won the Derby after running three times as a sophomore. Smarty Jones, War Emblem, and Monarchos all ran four times. Charismatic, the 1999 victor, raced seven times in the few months before attempting the Triple Crown. Based on these results, handicappers should be wary of horses with so few starts under their belts unless those prep races really challenged a horse.

 

 

 

Even though both Street Sense and Big Brown each ran only two prep races before the Triple Crown, those races were challenging enough to make them competitive on Derby Day. Street Sense started the year with a desperate nose victory in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) and then finished second in a multiple horse photo in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in April. Fighting to the wire twice primed Street Sense for the Derby. Another prep race could have been too much. On the other hand, Big Brown ran his competitors to the ground, exploding to electrifying victories in both Derby prep races. Big Brown ran faster than any other horse in his crop and, like Street Sense, another prep race could have caused the colt to become exhausted before the Derby.

 

The amount of training a horse will need depends on the horse.  For example, in 2006, Brother Derek waltzed through three prep races concluding in a runaway Santa Anita Derby victory, but he came up short in Kentucky. “It depends on the horse,” trainer Eoin Harty explained. “As a trainer, I would rather the horse not be too tested and do too much coming up to the big race, but you don’t want to find out on race day that your horse isn’t up to the top competition. For example, (1997 winner) Silver Charm had a very tough prep in the Santa Anita Derby but he was a horse who needed that kind of race because he was lazy. Last year, Colonel John had a lighter schedule and if he’d had to run a hard race before the Derby he might have had a better showing.” Colonel John finished sixth in the Derby.

 

Trainer Ron Ellis, who finished 4^th in the Derby in 2005 with Don’t Get Mad, examined what a trainer looks for in more detail. “Deciding where to prep depends on if the horse has ever had a tough race or run against tough competition. If they know how to run hard and bear down, then you’d rather take an easy race leading up to the big ones. If they’ve never been tested or tried then you need to find one of those to enter. A lot of young horses haven’t been tried, but once they get hooked and show that they have heart, they will never again be shocked that another horse is running alongside them. That’s when you want the easy prep.”

 

This year, the West Coast is the proud home of The Pamplemousse, a sensational three-year-old who recently won the Sham Stakes (gr. III) and will now proceed to the Santa Anita Derby. Although The Pamplemousse hasn’t had a difficult race yet this year, his trainer, Julio Canani, isn’t hoping to find one in April.

 

“I don’t want him to be challenged,” Canani said. “He doesn’t need to be tested because he tests himself. When I want him to work a slow five furlongs in 1:01 he works in :58. I try not to ask him to do too much.”

 

When it comes time to evaluate the candidates for the Kentucky Derby and other Triple Crown events this year, remember that a battle-tested horse with experience is more likely to emerge victorious than a lightly campaigned horse.

 

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Emily Shields s a regular contributor to Case the Race.  She has written for California Thoroughbred, Churchill Downs media, and international racing magazines.