Players who adopt this value-oriented perspective avoid the pitfalls and ever-diminishing payoffs that await those who believe that picking winners is the name of the game.  Horses that are likely winners of their races are too often overbet, because their merits are obvious to the public.  As a result, the payoffs that they return to the bettor on winning wagers are not great enough to compensate for the all-too-frequent times when they fail to live up to the public's expectations.  Yes, the most likely winner may be the single best horse in the field.  But the value player realizes that no horse ever has an absolute 100% guarantee of winning.  That's why he wants the horses that he bets to be overlays, with odds that are higher than the horse's actual chance of winning.  That will not only make up for those unavoidable losing efforts, but will also provide the bettor with an added amount as overall profit. By contrast, if the odds the public has established on the horse are too low to justify the risk of betting on it, that horse is called an underlay.  Players who insist on betting such horses will find that the horses won't win often enough, or pay enough when they do win, to compensate for the losses on the races where they don't finish first.  These individuals are squandering the sizable advantage that racing offers to those who are willing to move from a 'pick-the-winner-at-any-price' perspective to the exciting possibilities created by value-based play.

Different Approaches to Setting Odds